Inside Realty · Dinara DibajevaWhatsAppAround 290,000 new homes are scheduled for 2027–2028. What it really means for prices, rents, and where to buy.
Dubai has never delivered more than about 47,000 homes in one year (2019). The schedule for the next two years is far bigger.
Based on 4,758 projects analysed. About 1,700 projects are under construction or launched, holding about 480,000 homes. These are scheduled dates, not confirmed completions.
Of roughly 483,000 homes in the pipeline, very few are villas. In 2027, the peak year, 91% of supply is apartments.
Also heavy, on small land areas: Dubai Islands, Meydan, Maritime City, Motor City.
| Damac | ~50,000 |
| Emaar | ~47,000 |
| Azizi | ~40,000 |
| Binghatti | ~35,000 |
| Sobha | ~29,000 |
Three shocks hit at once while the 2015–16 launches were being handed over.
The presenter notes the 2020 low was made worse by COVID, when many expats left.
| 2015–2020 · 2021–2025 | |
| People added | ~1.1m · ~1.2m |
| Homes completed | ~163k · ~180k |
| Prices | −12% · +79% |
Similar growth, opposite result. Before: mostly workers on modest salaries. After COVID: entrepreneurs, remote workers, Golden Visa holders and wealthy families from Europe, Russia and India, with capital to buy.
Last year each new household held about 5.3 residents. On that basis Dubai needs roughly 46,000–79,000 new homes a year.
| Year | Scheduled · Households needed |
| 2027 | 136k · 46–64k |
| 2028 | 155k · 48–69k |
| 2029 | 89k · closer to balance |
| 2030 | 71k · roughly in balance |
On paper: a surplus of about 70,000–100,000 homes in each of 2027 and 2028. Then the curve normalises.
Fewer launches today means fewer handovers in 2029–2030.
| On time or early | 70% |
| Up to 6 months late | 12% |
| 6–12 months late | 8% |
| 12–24 months late | 6% |
Imported items such as AC units and windows depend on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Smaller private developers are most exposed to further delays.
I’ll shortlist villas, townhouses and well-located projects from reliable developers that fit your budget and timing.
WhatsApp +971 50 138 9341EmailSource: “Dubai’s 2027 Property Supply Shock: What Investors Need to Know”, Nathan Mistry, YouTube, 1 Nov 2026 (watch). All figures are the presenter’s analysis of project and DLD data and have not been independently verified. Scheduled handover dates are not confirmed completions. This briefing is for information only and is not financial advice.